But I've been wrong before .... a lot

I've always enjoyed the NFL much more than college football. I realize that's tantamount to blasphemy in some sectors, but I'm a NFL guy. What can I say?

Now, some would say that my favorite team -- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- hasn't always met the qualifications for NFL status, but you know what, I could be a Cleveland Browns fan.

Sorry, Bryan.

So this Sunday, I'll be watching the conference championship games. We've got two good match-ups to look forward to with New England (the NFL's version of the Evil Empire) and Baltimore in the AFC, and the East Rutherford (nee New York) Giants taking on San Francisco in the NFC title game.

It's a good thing the AFC championship starts at 3 p.m., because I'll be up from my mandatory, post-church, Sunday afternoon nap by then. Maybe. If I'm not, we've got a DVR.

Anyway, I've been watching all the usual suspects on ESPN this week and reading blogs and online commentators who have all thrown in their two cents worth about these two games. What have I learned from all of this "research"? My opinion is worth about as much as anyone else's.

AFC Championship Game: Baltimore-New England

Ravens QB Joe Flacco became future Hall of Fame safety Ed Reed's whipping boy this week. Reed said he wanted to motivate Flacco and the offense to reach new heights. Well, Ed, your offense is what it is.

Flacco is in a lose-lose-lose situation. If Baltimore wins, he gets no credit. If Baltimore loses, he gets all the blame. Well, a lot of it. If Baltimore wins AND he has a great game, well, even a blind pig ... aw, you know the rest.

So which Flacco will show up? The "newly motivated in hopes he plays like Joe Montana" Joe Flacco or the Average Joe Flacco we all know and love. Well, Average Joe didn't look great last week against Houston (See five sacks. Hey, thanks, O-line guys!), but he did throw two touchdown passes and didn't turn the ball over.

Game management, baby. Game management.

Meanwhile, back at the Patscave, New England hasn't lost a game since the first Sunday in November 2011. That's nine straight wins if you're counting.

I had to check their schedule since I usually can't remember what I had for breakfast, let alone what happened back in November of last year. Yeah, so it wasn't that long ago.

Anyway, the Pats slaughtered a bad Denver team last week and have hung at least 31 points on eight of the last nine defenses they've faced. And their own defense is actually presentable.

Random thought: "Wait, I don't even eat breakfast. No wonder I never remember what I had for breakfast. Hmm."

Bottom line: Baltimore needs this game to devolve into a three yards and a cloud of dust affair. Or, since they're playing on field turf, three yards and a cloud of rubberized filler material. The Ravens can't survive Pats QB Tom Brady playing pitch and catch to the tune of 500 yards. If they can't get pressure on Brady, they'll be checking online sites for tickets to the big game. By the same token, if the Pats can't keep Brady vertical, come Monday, they can start figuring out which players will be guest Zamboni drivers at Bruins home games.

My pick: Evil Empire, er, New England. But I've been wrong before ... a lot.

NFC Championship Game: New York Giants-San Francisco

Los Gigantes are on a roll right now. Winners of four straight and five of their last six, including a 37-20 thumping of just about everybody's Super Bowl lead-pipe lock, Green Bay, thus bumping the Packers off their throne. Hey, the East Rutherford crew even beat New England last November, but then proceeded to lose four straight. Um. Yeah. Okay.

But what is past is prologue. I read that somewhere. Hey, if it makes me seem smarter, that's cool.

These Giants have rediscovered their swagger on defense over the last four weeks, giving up just 15 points per game, including just two points to Atlanta in the wild card round of the playoffs. They held one of the NFL's most prolific offenses (See Green Bay) to just 20 points in the divisional round. On top of that, they're running the ball pretty well, QB Eli Manning is playing really well and their receivers are coming up with big plays. Pretty good recipe for success.

Plus, crabby ole Tom Coughlin can flat coach. The media reports that the guy's job is in jeopardy after every NYG loss, but, a la Rasputin, he just keeps coming back.

And then there's San Francisco. The 49ers enjoyed the extreme football makeover Candlestick edition in 2011, winning the pedestrian NFC West in fairly easy fashion on their way to a 13-3 record under the leadership of the at-times surly "Capt. Comeback" Jim Harbaugh.

Brother Jim would probably like another shot at Brother John and his Ravens in two weeks. You remember Brother John's team beat the 49ers 16-6 during the regular season. A lot of analysts say that the Niners reaching the Super Bowl just ain't gonna happen. But a lot of other analysts say it will.

Frisco is a lot like Baltimore in many respects. They get it done with defense and running the football, and they even kind of hate their QB, former No. 1 draft pick Alex Smith.

Smith enjoyed an epic game last week against New Orleans, throwing for three touchdowns, including the gamewinner with nine seconds left in the game. That toss to TE Vernon Davis prompted comparisons to legendary 49ers postseason TD pass plays "The Catch" (Joe Montana to Dwight Clark) and "The Catch II" (Steve Young to Terrell Owens).

Davis even wept on Harbaugh's shoulder like T.O. A tender moment to be sure.

And for good measure, Smith added to his best Steve Young impersonation by scoring on a 28-yard TD run with a little more than two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.

The burning questions this week: Can Smith repeat last week's performance against the improving Giants defense? Can Manning and the NYG offense crack the 49ers defense?

Note: The Saints pasted the Gigantes 49-24 during the regular season. What does that mean? I don't know. I saw it on the Giants schedule. Oh yeah, NYG also lost to San Fran and Green Bay during the regular season. Yep. Saw it on the schedule, too. What does it mean? No clue.

My pick: 49ers. But I've been wrong before ... a lot.

So, based on my predictions, what will we see in Super Bowl XLVI? Looks like New England and San Francisco.

But I've been wrong before ... a lot.

Enjoy the games!

P.S.
If you're not a football fan, ignore everything you've just read.